Thunder Bay: Welcoming Communities Analysis
At a time when the city is experiencing one of its largest waves of immigration, Environics conducted a Welcoming Communities Analysis on behalf of the Thunder Bay CEDC, City of Thunder Bay and Thunder Bay Multicultural Association to help municipal leaders and settlement organizations understand what is working well – and where gaps remain – in supporting newcomer settlement and retention.
The City of Thunder Bay has been experiencing one of its largest periods of immigration, driven by efforts from municipal, provincial and federal government, as well as key not-for-profit organizations, to enhance the local economy and workforce. As a result, there continues to be growing cultural, religious and linguistic diversity across the city, with small businesses and community services aiming to adapt accordingly.
As a response, the Thunder Bay Community Economic Development Commission (CEDC), City of Thunder Bay Community Services Department (CTB) and Thunder Bay Multicultural Association (TBMA) partnered to conduct a Welcoming Communities Analysis – aiming to help key organizations understand Thunder Bay’s current landscape and develop strategies to make the city more welcoming and supportive of newcomers.
When thinking about healthcare, transit, housing, community services and childcare in Thunder Bay, how prepared is our community to support newcomers?
Guided by a central question, this study focused on the factors that shape long-term retention and integration in Thunder Bay. Recognizing that the drivers of staying are often distinct from those that influence initial attraction, Environics designed a multi-method research approach to capture both lived experiences and measurable outcomes.
Using the Pathways to Prosperity ‘Welcoming Communities Analysis’ Framework, we grounded this work in clear metrics to assess how Thunder Bay is performing across different aspects of a ‘welcoming community.’ With the city’s demographics evolving so rapidly and so many needs feeling urgent, a data-driven approach to prioritization becomes invaluable.
Senior Research Associate – Public Affairs
Our methodology provided a holistic view of settlement journeys across different perspectives, including:
To move beyond descriptive insights, advanced statistical modelling was used to identify which aspects of the settlement experience are most predictive of a sense of belonging and long-term retention.
Findings were synthesized through a Performance & Impact Matrix, a prioritization tool that mapped key settlement factors based on their impact on integration and retention, alongside current performance for newcomers. This approach allowed for clear identification of strengths to build on, as well as critical gaps where targeted investments and interventions could have the greatest effect.
For more insight into the factors identified across the Performance & Impact Matrix, explore the full report.
Thunder Bay has experienced a period of strong immigration that boosted the local workforce and economy. At the same time, national policy changes are expected to reduce newcomer numbers which makes retention a key priority for the community.
To support Thunder Bay’s population growth goals, this analysis identifies critical factors within housing, health care, transit, community services, and child care that impact in integrating and retaining newcomers.
Understanding both the need and the opportunity to make Thunder Bay a more welcoming place will help build a stronger community for everyone. Thunder Bay is already an incredible place to live, but by becoming more attractive and supportive to newcomers, we strengthen our workforce and gain a competitive advantage in attracting industry, businesses, and new residents.
CEO, Thunder Bay CEDC
The Thunder Bay Community Economic Development Commission is the city’s lead economic development agency, guided by an independent board. As champions for local growth we leverage our local knowledge and expertise to position Thunder Bay as the best small city in Canada to do business, live, work and visit.
The City of Thunder Bay’s Community Services department is responsible for the delivery of public transit, recreation and culture, and municipal child care programs with a focus on providing safe, inclusive environments and valued opportunities that enhance the lives of residents and visitors.
Established in 1972 by a number of community ethnocultural groups to promote immigrant services and multiculturalism, The Thunder Bay Multicultural Association (TBMA) facilitates newcomer settlement. Its vision is to promote multiculturalism and help eliminate racism in the region through a full suite of services, community engagement, development and positive social equity framework.
Design your own consultation to uncover key drivers and barriers to integration and retainment, all grounded in your local reality. With consultative evidence, policy and strategy become rooted in local insights, creating a foundation for smarter planning, stronger community buy-in, and long-term newcomer success and well-being.
To learn more about the Welcoming Communities Analysis Initiative.
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Solutions
04/08/26
Michele Cunningham
Research
03/06/26
Vijay Wadhawan
Research
02/17/26
Kosta Panaritis
