Energy growth that addresses climate commitments
Prime Minister Mark Carney has pitched major infrastructure development as a primary solution to Canada’s economic woes. Notably, he sees both conventional and clean energy as important drivers of growth and trade diversification.
Suggestions that Canada may build a new oil pipeline as part an effort to become an energy superpower has many asking where the country’s efforts to address climate change fit into the government’s vision.
Our survey data shows that Carney has a window of opportunity to achieve his multi-pronged energy agenda, but that the environment and climate remain important considerations for Canadians. For many, support for new oil infrastructure rests on the promise of equal (or greater) pursuit of clean energy.
Support for oil rises, but only with a clear clean energy payoff
First, public concern about environmental damage remains significant and shows no signs of abating, despite a constant churn of competing priorities (affordability concerns, Trump threats, housing gap, etc).
There has been a remarkable shift in favour of natural resource development over the past decade, from 36% support for removing barriers to development in 2013 to 56% support today. Although this is a big change, the margin of support remains relatively slim – with 44% of Canadians saying governments should actually increase barriers to better control their provinces’ resources.
When asked which major energy projects Canada should pursue, the largest share of Canadians – about half – want to see clean and conventional energy developed. But among the remainder, preference for clean energy (26%) exceeds that for conventional energy (13%) by a two-to-one margin.
And even at a time when Canada faces pressure to score some economic wins quickly in the face of U.S. threats, Canadians remain firmly on side with investing in green technology and sustainable energy sources (81%). More than seven in 10 in MB/SK and AB – regional strongholds for conventional energy – share their fellow Canadians’ enthusiasm for investing in sustainable energy.
What does this mean?
These results suggest the federal government is walking a fine line. Its argument for taking advantage of Canada’s conventional energy, including by speeding exports with a new oil pipeline, may be finding favour with Canadians because it is paired with a strong focus on building clean energy capacity.
This is a difficult balance to achieve and has two main implications. First, delivering a new pipeline without also advancing clean sources and renewables will be unpopular, and risks increasing public resistance to development. Second, now is the time for clean energy advocates to consider which projects to put forward in the national interest that will capture the public’s imagination.
