Torontonians voted for a more progressive approach to municipality

For the first time in 13 years, Toronto has a progressive mayor. Olivia Chow, a longtime icon of the left in Canada, was elected after having led the polls from the start of the campaign. Some observers have dismissed her victory as largely the product of her high name recognition. Research conducted by Environics Research during the byelection campaign for the

Toronto and York Region Labour Council

indicated that in fact Torontonians had a clear preference for more progressive policies, wanted a mayor who could act as a counter-balance to the conservative Ontario provincial government and voted accordingly.

While Chow won with 37 per cent of the vote, over 80 per cent of voters opted for a variety of mayoral candidates who at least tried to portray themselves as representing a shift to a more progressive approach on the issues. Runner up Ana Bailão, who came in a relatively close second with 32 percent, also tried to garner support from unions, claimed to be pro-labour and also promised more investment in housing and municipal services. Only about fifteen per cent of voters chose more conservative candidates who promised to freeze property taxes and/or tried to exploit right-wing populist hot buttons such as opposition to bike lanes and safe injection sites.

The Toronto byelection is also an example of a tendency for Canadians, especially in Ontario, to seek balance by electing governments of different ideologies federally, provincially and municipally. The election of Olivia Chow and the strength of support for other progressive candidates is a sign that Torontonians were looking to take a step in a more progressive direction after 13 years of small “c” conservative mayors and five years of a Progressive Conservative government at Queen’s Park. Almost two-thirds of Torontonians felt that we needed a mayor who would stand up for Toronto against the policies of the (conservative) Ford government while just 16 per cent wanted a mayor who would follow the lead of the Ford government and help them implement their policies.

Chow’s win may also be a sign of a growing urban/rural political polarization in Canada that is already a feature observed in many other western democracies. Environics has also

observed

a growing divide in Alberta between the values of urban and rural voters. Toronto is just the latest large municipality to put a progressive candidate in the mayor’s office, repeating a pattern seen recently in Calgary, Edmonton, Montreal, Quebec City and Hamilton.

It wasn’t so long ago that another Toronto mayoral election became a national news story when Rob Ford rode a right-wing populist wave to be elected mayor of Toronto in 2010. At the time, Ford attacked public sector unions and the so-called “gravy train” of government spending and promised to contract out city services as a way of saving money. This year, research we conducted found that Toronto voters were in a very different mood. A solid majority felt that labour unions play a positive role in society; a reputation for being pro-labour was more of asset than a liability among mayoral candidates. (Incidentally, a plurality of Torontonians also now oppose contracting out municipal services.) As it happens, Olivia Chow was overwhelmingly viewed as the most pro-labour candidate for mayor. Brad Bradford, the only high profile candidate who campaigned on saving money by taking away labour rights, received just one percent of the vote.

Chow came under fire during the campaign for being vague about how much property taxes may have to rise in the coming years, but our survey indicated that a clear majority of Torontonians agreed that the city should invest in better services even if that would mean a small property tax increase. By contrast, one in four wanted to prioritize keeping taxes low even at the expense of municipal services. Only a small minority of Torontonians identified taxes as one of their top concerns.

We also found very high levels of support for a suite of other progressive policy proposals such as having the City build more affordable housing, reversing recent cuts to public transit and taking stronger action to address climate change. It was also notable that the vast majority of Torontonians agreed that developers have too much influence on decision-making at city hall. On the issue of public safety, our polling found that by a wide margin Torontonians felt that the best way to make Toronto safer was to reallocate some of the police budget to better mental health and social services as opposed to simply increasing the police budget and hiring more police.

Mayor Chow will face many challenges in running Toronto for the next few years. But if she governs effectively and is seen to be delivering on her program, it may reinforce this trend toward Canada’s cities being at the forefront of progressive values and policy initiatives. This trend may set the stage for conflicts between cities and future federal and provincial governments whose electoral coalitions may be more dependent on rural and exurban voters.

This electoral trend in urban Canada is a reflection of how urban populations are increasingly embracing progressive policy agendas in a range of areas. Since a growing majority of Canadians live in major urban centres this trend has major implications for the country as a whole.

It wasn’t so long ago that another Toronto mayoral election became a national news story when Rob Ford rode a right-wing populist wave to be elected mayor of Toronto in 2010. At the time, Ford attacked public sector unions and the so-called “gravy train” of government spending and promised to contract out city services as a way of saving money. This year, research we conducted found that Toronto voters were in a very different mood. A solid majority felt that labour unions play a positive role in society; a reputation for being pro-labour was more of asset than a liability among mayoral candidates. (Incidentally, a plurality of Torontonians also now oppose contracting out municipal services.) As it happens, Olivia Chow was overwhelmingly viewed as the most pro-labour candidate for mayor. Brad Bradford, the only high profile candidate who campaigned on saving money by taking away labour rights, received just one percent of the vote.

Chow came under fire during the campaign for being vague about how much property taxes may have to rise in the coming years, but our survey indicated that a clear majority of Torontonians agreed that the city should invest in better services even if that would mean a small property tax increase. By contrast, one in four wanted to prioritize keeping taxes low even at the expense of municipal services. Only a small minority of Torontonians identified taxes as one of their top concerns.

We also found very high levels of support for a suite of other progressive policy proposals such as having the City build more affordable housing, reversing recent cuts to public transit and taking stronger action to address climate change. It was also notable that the vast majority of Torontonians agreed that developers have too much influence on decision-making at city hall. On the issue of public safety, our polling found that by a wide margin Torontonians felt that the best way to make Toronto safer was to reallocate some of the police budget to better mental health and social services as opposed to simply increasing the police budget and hiring more police.

Mayor Chow will face many challenges in running Toronto for the next few years. But if she governs effectively and is seen to be delivering on her program, it may reinforce this trend toward Canada’s cities being at the forefront of progressive values and policy initiatives. This trend may also set the stage for conflicts between cities and future federal and provincial governments whose electoral coalitions may be more dependent on rural and exurban voters.

Torontonians voted for a more progressive approach to municipal governance

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