For more than a decade, Environics has been tracking Canadian opinions about the environment, climate change and related issues. In recent surveys, almost nine in ten Canadians express some level of concern about climate change, including six in ten that express high levels of concern – saying they are extremely or definitely concerned. Only about one in ten are not very or not at all concerned.

Although they’re concerned, Canadians are aware that climate change is a complex topic and most don’t feel very well-informed about it. A minority of about three in ten report being very (or extremely) well-informed.

On carbon pricing, majorities in most regions are supportive; residents of Alberta and Saskatchewan are the exceptions. For many Canadians, it appears their concern about the consequences of climate change is strong enough that they’re willing to bear some of the cost to help stop it.

These overall patterns, however, mask a number of important undercurrents. First, over time, the level of concern about climate change has trended downward, from a high in 2007 of almost four in ten expressing extreme concern, to about two in ten more recently.

Second, while households’ willingness to pay for climate action grew from less than half in 2008 to almost six in ten by 2012, that trend has since reversed; willingness to pay has recently returned to 2008 levels. It appears that, in a low awareness environment, the absence of a clear and compelling case for carbon pricing has allowed opponents to chip away at support.

A third trend strikes a contradictory note: Although Canadians have become less worried about climate change and less willing to pay to help stop it, they’ve also become increasingly persuaded that government-imposed fees or taxes will be required to drive environmental action. We’ve been asking Canadians for years whether environmental change is best effected through voluntary action by individuals or through government actions (fees or taxes); 2017 was the first time a majority chose the government option. A slim majority now feel that voluntary action is not enough to address the challenges we face.

In summary, with Canadians expressing a desire for government leadership, a substantial amount of concern about climate change, and moderate support across much of the country for a price on carbon, the time may be right for bold action along the lines of the national carbon tax currently under discussion. No policy will be popular with all Canadians, but the data point to a reasonable chance that a carbon tax will be acceptable to the majority.

A caution, however, is that majority support does not always trump a mobilized (and efficiently distributed) minority in Canada’s first-past-the-post electoral system. If the group of Canadians willing to support a carbon tax splits its votes between parties, a party representing the will of an opposed minority can impose that will on the country. If any party decides to run on a pro-carbon tax platform, it will need to make a clear case for why it’s needed, and how the revenue it generates will be distributed.